About

We were recently referred to by a customer as "The Forecasting Jablonskis".  We think that's a great label. Here's some more background:

 

Patrick Jablonski, Ph.D., Senior Statistician

With 24 years of experience in the correctional field, Patrick Jablonski, Ph.D., has conducted numerous public policy assessments and statistical forecasts.  Dr. Jablonski has experience as an analyst for both a large metropolitan county government and in the private sector, working extensively on the dynamics of the potential impact of public policy changes. 

 

As a Research Statistician for Orange County (FL) Government, Dr. Jablonski was responsible for a variety of internal and external metrics, including statistical forecasts ranging from the viability of a new sports arena to pedestrian safety.  Dr. Jablonski worked closely with the County’s Jail Oversight Commission on a regular basis, providing criminal justice case processing statistics and analyses which concentrated on the impact of court event timelines on the jail’s population.  Once implemented, the Jail Oversight Commission’s recommendations successfully reduced the jail’s population by over 700 inmates (nearly 20% of the ADP) in a 12-month period.  A major focus of Dr. Jablonski’s work was devoted to providing statistical forecasting in support of the establishment of the county’s Central Receiving Center (CRC), a jail diversion facility for people facing mental health issues, which required building and validating a significant number of statistical models to determine the number of mental health beds needed at the CRC as well as in other county facilities and the community.

 

Dr. Jablonski has also produced over 90 criminal justice system assessments at the state and local levels.  Acknowledging that accomplishing meaningful permanent change requires the commitment and cooperation of all the major agencies of the criminal justice system, Dr. Jablonski utilizes data and communication to ensure that recommendations are implemented rather than merely sit inside a report.  Dr. Jablonski utilizes a variety of time series modeling approaches in forecasting, concentrating on isolating contributing factors and subsequently providing scenarios to assist decision makers. 

 

Dr. Jablonski has presented findings at multiple conferences nationally in multiple fields as well as publishing numerous refereed journal articles. 

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